Archive for November, 2010

The November 2010 CapDrain is out

Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

The November 2010 CapitalDrain newsletter just went out by email and is posted on the web site. If you’re signed up to receive it, you should have it by now.
If you didn’t get it, you can see it here.
If you’re not on the mailing list and would like to be, email me at CapitalDrain @ .

Thanksgiving for more good news.

Saturday, November 27th, 2010

Thanksgiving brought us a short work week of good economic news.
The revised announcement of US GDP growth was higher than the preliminary estimate, so the economy is getting stronger.
The weekly new unemployment claims were lower than they’ve been for years. They’re still much higher than a healthy economy would have, but they’re getting better.
The FDIC didn’t have to take over any new banks. That may be an artifact of the Thursday holiday, though. We’ll see next Friday if there’s a “catch-up” pulse of closures. The trend, though, has been improving, and every bit of other good news that comes out takes some pressure off the struggling banks.
The most comprehensively-informed good news came from the Conference Board. Their Leading Economic Indicator continues to rise, presaging more improvement.

A quiet glide

Friday, November 5th, 2010

Banks have continued their quiet glide toward a safe landing.
This week the FDIC only closed four more banks, for a cost of a bit under $250M. Slow and steady descent isn’t as good as rising, but it’s better than crashing. Much.

Third leg rejoins the stool

Friday, November 5th, 2010

This morning the Non-Farm Payroll tally was announced, and it was well better than expected.テつ This is great news.テつ Obviously, it’s nice that more people are finding jobs.テつ In addition to that, employment is a lagging indicator.テつ Of the three indicators I’ve been using to illustrate the recovery, this was the shakiest leg on the stool.テつ For jobs to resume rising is more evidence that there’s a real recovery in progress, and we are not on our way to a double-dip recession.

This past Tuesday was the 2010 mid-term Congressional election, in which the Republican Party regained control of the House of Representatives.テつ The humorists on Wall Street joked today that “it only took the Republicans two days to get things back on track.”テつ Cue laughter, but two years from now conservative campaigners will be claiming credit with a straight face.テつ For the record, the Democratic President and Congress who were elected in 2008 did the work despite the conservative rant and obstruction.

The recession ended 18 months ago.テつテつ Employment bottomed about 10 months ago.